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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:15 pm 
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[quote="KingofDominaria"

Again, the entire start of this had no basis to claim that I am more likely than any other person to be mafia.

Now is a different matter due to Neo's role ability (which, again, still hasn't been detailed properly to give full context regarding how it works).

JD said it best. You focused on the X of Neo's argument instead of the entire thing. And even if you focus on the X (the premise that I am more likely to pick mafia), there is no basis for it. The premise can be applied to everyone equally (and you'll disagree with that because people have different inclinations which is the entire point: you need hard, relevant data to back up the assertion whether it is against everyone or against an individual -- which was the case with me when Neo first started this).[/quote]
Right. But the thing is, I never contested that the basis is lacking. What I was arguing is that if we find evidence for the basis, the idea is worthwhile.


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Hey, I actually focused on what was going on. You and Sky wanted to argue the what-ifs. Reap what you sow.

I can only agree with the last sentence here.


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As an aside, Rag and I gave different answers than what you're giving Dusky. Originally people mentioned total points (I have a different number for that). Rag gave the combined point total of the two options she chose. That being said, what is your total for the combined options?

My total of choice 1 and 2 is 1. :angel:


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:20 pm 
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So, the total positive value of all of my role options is 76. But this number excludes the point value of an option that would provide a substantial negative modifier to my point total.

As for the point total of the options I chose, I am entirely willing to provide my own numbers, but it occurs to me that roles such as cop or doctor would be more or less incompatible with scum alignment, and thus players with crucial town roles might have exceptionally low or even negative mafia values. It may not be in town's interest to require disclosure of totals (and even if town does require this, it may not be in the interest of hypothetical doctors or cops to reveal their own actual values).


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:43 pm 
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Dusky
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Right. But the thing is, I never contested that the basis is lacking. What I was arguing is that *****if***** we find evidence for the basis, the idea is worthwhile.


:bored:

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I can only agree with the last sentence here.


*Points to previous quote.*

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My total of choice 1 and 2 is 1. :angel:


That's certainly low.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:43 pm 
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i read the game rules as meaning the top two players in terms of points roll mafia and the bottom two get some sort of bonus

i assume the latter is meant to dissuade people from claiming points as a means of gaining town pants

although mafia can and presumably will lie anyway so idk

i guess there are probably roles that could potentially catch mafia in that sort of lie

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:52 pm 
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If you don't want to claim numbers, that's fine. The only thing I care about is Neo expanding upon his ability so it is clear how it was determined that I am more likely to be. Because of it is based on the number along, yet he doesn't know the other numbers for others, then I am curious. Perhaps it says a person is more likely if it is above X value. Because he only targeted me, right? So how does he know there is one other person that is more likely to be mafia as well?

These are things I want answered since the focus is on me (and he hasn't added anything more other than a partial claim to help keep the spotlight on me).


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:58 pm 
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i haven't read anything before page 4 so i don't know anything about anything neo claimed fwtw

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:00 pm 
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NeoSilk wrote:
vote: KoD
I don’t see any situation here where you were not trying to be mafia when you selected your roles.


i read a series of random posts in the first 3 pages and saw this post and i think it is good enough for me

Vote: KoD

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:02 pm 
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apparently neo also has some sort of spaghetti-consistency cop claim on KoD so that's worth whatever that's worth

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:03 pm 
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I meant that towards Sky.

There's a lot before Neo's claim, but essentially Neo claimed to have targeted me with an ability that tells him I am more likely to be mafia based on my point value. That's how I understand it. Specifics regarding the ability are unclear.

EBWOP:

*Throws hands up.*


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:48 pm 
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Okay, seriously, this is getting dumb. Rubik and Rag both seem super scummy and opportunistic right now, and I was considering voting one of them. But I would also like to just lynch Neo, because his claim is ridiculous. Either way, the KoD wagon is far too fast for me to believe it is a good idea. Actually, I made up my mind while writing this.

Vote: Ragnarokio

For lurking, and then throwing a wagon vote without reading the thread (or at least claiming not to read the thread). Even if KoD is scum, which I don't believe, that is either super sloppy play that should never be encouraged, or it is straight scummy.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:25 am 
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Skystone wrote:
You are trying to conflate separate phenomena, while also misconstruing others. Perhaps you need to re-read Neo's posts. Neo's initial proposition -- literally the second post after the start of the Day 1 -- was specifically that KoD was trying to be mafia while selecting roles. This is substantially and materially different from suggesting that KoD ended up with a mafia role, as we know for a fact that mafia points are not deterministic in selecting a player's alignment. Consequently, the only way that you can justify the argument that you are proposing is by claiming that Neo did not understand the premise of the game.


Nah I'm just looking at the sum of neo's behavior instead of trying to put specific actions into a pocket to suit my argumentatuve needs.
Even if you take KoD trying to be mafia as a given thats no indication that he is mafia or is more likely to be mafia. This stems from a fundamental basis that we do not have the exact means of how HW is extrpolating scum from the pool of possible candidates. In trying to make himself scum KoD could just as easily sabotage himself if he guess wrong how HW will extrapolate.

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This doesn't follow at all. KoD and I were discussing a specific problem that was introduced by a) Neo's initial posts and, b) my initial response to KoD's reaction to those posts. It doesn't matter that Neo's argument has since changed, because KoD is presumably incapable of travelling backwards through time, and therefore his reactions to specific past phenomena cannot be informed by what happened after he had already reacted to those stimuli.


Given it has nothing to do with KoD and everything to do with neo, it does follow. But again I'm not looking at things in a pocket vacuum for my argumebts sake.

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In any case, you are functionally arguing, to use an analogy, that I can't discuss the French Monarch because the territory of France is a republic in the present day.


No my argument is that discussing the french monarch is irrelevant when the discussion is about the bowel movements of penguins.

@KoD, what we do I this game is technically psychology. Just sayin.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:40 am 
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@JD:

Most certainly. I ended up differentiating, in my mind, between what Sky and Dusky are arguing vs how a typical game of mafia occurs wrt to reading people.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:40 am 
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@Yelly batman child: what is ridiculous about Neo's claim, and why do you think that ridiculosity warrants a lynch?

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:00 am 
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Ragnarokio wrote:
NeoSilk wrote:
vote: KoD
I don’t see any situation here where you were not trying to be mafia when you selected your roles.


i read a series of random posts in the first 3 pages and saw this post and i think it is good enough for me

Vote: KoD

:rofl:


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:04 am 
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But seriously Rag, while that vote and reasoning is super amusing in light of what we discussed, it really does look very opportunistic.

Ach KoD, why must I always feel bad for you?


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:10 am 
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Even if you take KoD trying to be mafia as a given thats no indication that he is mafia or is more likely to be mafia. This stems from a fundamental basis that we do not have the exact means of how HW is extrpolating scum from the pool of possible candidates. In trying to make himself scum KoD could just as easily sabotage himself if he guess wrong how HW will extrapolate.

Bolded what I am referring to.
Really? But then why give points at all? Sure, points aren't the only factor in the calculation, but it seemed very clear from the instructions that more points = higher chance to be mafia. It would still at least mean people with high scores get into the pool of possible mafia, thus having a higher likelihood of being selected than those who don't make it into that pool. If the points don't influence the selection, there is no reason to assign them in the first place.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:13 am 
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it won't look opportunistic if KoD dies and flips scum

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:11 am 
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@Rag:

If what you were asking was true in any sense, then it would warrant a response.

@Dusky:

Reread your role pm again. Nothing about what was said gave the impression that a higher point value would equate to being more likely to be mafia. As JD pointed out, and as is evident from what was given, we know the sum of the point values will help determine how likely one is to be mafia. We don't know how it does that though.

For all we know a low sum could make it more likely. Or a sum near a certain value could do this. What everyone, with exception to JD, probably assumed is that a high number equated to a high chance.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:21 am 
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Hello world wrote this at the start of the original signup thread

[quote=HW]
You can also try to force your alignment: the role and the modifier will combine to give you a certain amount of tickets, I will then perform an extraction with these tickets and the first 3 players to be extracted will be mafia aligned. Furthermore the first player to be picked and the last 5 players to be picked may perform a non-factional action in night 0, but every player that would die due to it will die at the start of night 1 instead.(you won't be notified that you are eligible to perform an action night 0 if you can't perform any action).
[/quote]

which implies mafia is the result of a raffle. If i have 10 points among my selection, and KoD has 40, then that means that KoD is 4 times more likely than me to roll mafia.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:21 am 
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i think that math is really naive though, someone else could probably determine exactly what the relevant odds are for given point comparisons

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